Introduction to NFL Futures Wagering

Posted on December 3, 2010 by admin

Each February, the NFL season concludes on an epic stage. The spectacle of the Super Bowl marks the end of one journey but the beginning of another. For football bettors, the next Super Bowl quickly becomes the focus once a season is in the books. Bookmakers promptly post the odds for an upcoming Super Bowl right after the conclusion of an NFL season. There are many factors for the bettor to evaluate in an NFL futures pool.

There are three main NFL futures pools. The main one is on the Super Bowl. There are also pools for conference and division titles. While bookmakers have to be extremely focused to set an accurate NFL point spread, there is more leeway in a futures pool.

Super Bowl Futures Pool

For a Super Bowl pool of 32 teams, only one club is going to win. So, there is a good deal of flexibility that is available to the oddsmaker. Because of this, the Super Bowl odds for the upcoming year can be released at the conclusion of the season. Initially, the odds will be greatly influenced by what has occurred in the prior season after all, the opening odds have been set before any offseason personnel moves have been made. When the odds are first released, the savvy bettor will be looking to find some teams that could have some upside for the coming season. Because of the structure of the league, bad teams can become playoff contenders from year to year.

In the previous decade, many squads went from a last place team one year to a division champion the next. The Miami Dolphins posted a woeful 1-15 record in 2007. In 2008, a rejuvenated Miami club went 11-5 to win the AFC East. Since 2001, nine different franchises have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl. These are examples of how quickly things can change in the league from one year to the next.

Coaching Changes – A Variable to Consider

As a new season approaches, the bettor should be aware of a few important issues pertaining to each team. Coaching changes can be significant. Usually, the moves involve some of the worst teams in the league. However, there are occasions when an established coach for a winning organization may step aside. Depending on the circumstances, a new head coach can end up being the ultimate difference maker for a team.

On the flip side, some coaches end up being flops in the NFL.

Personnel Changes – Opportunity for Change

Once the coaches have been set for an upcoming year, the focus will turn to the personnel for each team. In April, the NFL Draft gives all 32 clubs in the league a chance to add some young talent to their respective rosters. Because the weakest teams get to pick highest in the draft, there is a decent opportunity for bad clubs to narrow the gap. Established veterans can be added through free agency and trades. From year to year, no specific NFL is exactly the same. While several will be able to play at the same general level for a few years, many will be widely unpredictable each season.

Scheduling Variables

The schedule is a subtle factor that can be quite important for a team’s success or failure in an upcoming season. While teams will always play six divisional games each season, the other ten contests are a little different every season. Clubs from one division in a conference will face all of the teams from another division in the conference every three years on a rotating basis. The same formula is applied for interconference games on a rotating basis of four years. Also, several other conference games are determined by where a team finished in the standings during the prior year. Based on the level of play in a certain division, a team may win or lose a few more games than expected because of the schedule.

NFL Futures Strategy

When all of these aspects are considered, the bettor can focus in on the proper strategy to attack an NFL futures pool. While a bettor is locked in on a point spread bet, he can make several wagers on an NFL futures pool throughout the season. It may seem difficult to choose one Super Bowl winner out of 32 options. However, the odds are high enough in these pools to choose more than one club and still turn a profit. For the conference pools, there are just 16 teams to analyze. To select a division winner, the bettor has to handicap just four clubs. While it takes some patience to wager on these kind of NFL pools, the rewards can be worth the wait when the next Super Bowl champion is crowned.

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Introduction to March Madness Wagering

Posted on December 3, 2010 by admin

While the Super Bowl is the biggest single-day sports betting event, the NCAA basketball tournament actually takes in a higher volume of wagers. Sports fans and bettors embrace the excitement of March Madness each spring. There are many aspects to consider before wagering on college basketball’s showcase event.

When the college basketball season begins in November, over 300 division 1-A schools start the year with a certain goal. All of these teams hope to wind up in the NCAA tournament. In the end, only 68 schools will get a bid to the tourney.

Four Stages of a College Hoops Season

There are four stages to a college hoops season. First, there are the non-conference games in November and December. Teams use these games to build some momentum heading into conference play. The conference games are the second stage of the season in January and February. In March, the next stage occurs with the conference tournaments. The three initial stages are factored together to determine which 68 teams will get to advance to the fourth stage. The final stage is the NCAA tournament.  Each stage has some unique aspects for the bookmaker and bettor to consider.

Tuneup Games

Early in the season, major conference teams will play a lot of home games against minor conference squads. These are viewed as tuneup games for the big schools and a chance for the minor conference clubs to compete against elite teams. In the first two months of the season, teams will usually play at least a couple of games at a neutral site. These holiday tournaments enable schools to get a taste of the atmosphere that is yet to come in March.

Homecourt Advantage

Once conference play starts, teams will play an equal number of home and away contests. The homecourt advantage in college basketball can be quite significant. Generally, the home team is given about 4 points in the line. At certain college arenas, the noise and atmosphere can intimidate the visiting teams. Many college squads will have great disparities of play from home to the road.

Conference Tournaments

Once the regular season slate is complete, the conference tournaments get underway. More often than not, these tourneys are played at neutral sites. For most of the smaller leagues, the conference tournament is critical. In these leagues, the only NCAA bid will come from the winner of that conference’s tourney. In the major conferences, several teams will get NCAA berths. So, the conference tournament isn’t as important in these leagues.

NCAA Tournament Team Selection and Scheduling

The 68 teams that are selected for the NCAA tournament are comprised mainly of teams from major conferences. Typically, about 20 clubs from minor conferences are in the field. After four opening games, the field is reduced to 64. The teams are broken into four regions of 16 teams and are seeded. Once the field is set at 64, the real frenzy of March Madness begins for sports bettors. From Thursday through Sunday, there are a total of 48 games. By Saturday, the field of 64 is cut in half. By the end of the weekend, there are just 16 teams left in the field. The Thursday through Sunday schedule is also in place for the round of 16. At the end of these games, the Final Four is set.

On the following Saturday, the national semifinals are held at a domed stadium that can seat over 50,000 fans. The winners on Saturday advance to the national title game on Monday night. When the initial pairings for the tournament are announced, the bookmaker will face a bit of a challenge on some of the lines. Some of the schools from the smaller leagues aren’t booked too often during the regular season. While the oddsmaker is used to setting lines for major conference schools, he isn’t accustomed to creating odds for some of the minor conference squads that are in the tournament. The bookmaker will look at some power ratings and scoring averages to come up with some solid numbers for the smaller schools.

The bettor should take a look at how the smaller conference teams fared in November and December against the major conference schools. Because the NCAA tourney is a single-elimination tournament, there are no second chances available to the teams in the field. So, there is an urgency for teams to win that isn’t necessarily there during the regular season. Without any homecourt edges to factor in, the bettor can focus his handicapping on the true abilities of each team. March Madness can be enjoyable and profitable at the same time for fans and bettors.             

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Introduction to MLB Over/Under Wagering

Posted on December 3, 2010 by admin

For many Major League Baseball bettors, over/under wagers are actually the preferred option. While money line or run line bets may force the bettor to lay a steep price on a favorite, a total wager in baseball isn’t much different from a point spread bet in football or basketball. The bettor must take several aspects of a game into account before deciding on which side to choose for an MLB totals wager.

On average, a typical MLB team will score 8 to 9 runs per game. Most totals will hover around these numbers. On the low end, over/unders can range from 6.5 to 7 runs. At the high extreme, totals can range from 11 or 12 runs.

Ballpark Venue a Primay Aspect to Setting Wagers

The bookmaker will look at a few basic concepts before setting a total for each game. The ballpark where the game will be played is arguably the most important factor. While football fields and basketball courts have standard dimensions, each of the 30 Major League Baseball stadiums is a little different from the next. Some of the ballparks are viewed as being favorable to the hitter. In these type of stadiums, the fences can be closer to home plate than most other ballparks.

In another aspect that can lead to a stadium being labeled as a hitter’s ballpark, the ball will carry better than average in the air. A classic hitter’s ballpark is Boston’s Fenway Park. This historic stadium is famous for its “Green Monster” wall down the left field line. While this stretch of wall is the highest of any wall in the majors, it is far closer to home plate than usual. At Fenway Park, routine fly balls in most stadiums can easily turn into extra base hits due to the short dimensions in left field.

A couple of other hitter’s parks are Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark and Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park. The ball carries well at these stadiums. Also, each of these ballparks have favorable dimensions for the batter.

In contrast, a particular stadium can be favorable to a pitcher. These stadiums feature big dimensions. In a typical pitcher’s ballpark, it is more difficult for the hitter to club a home run. Also, the ball won’t travel well in the air at certain stadiums. Petco Park in San Diego and Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles are examples of pitching ballparks. The dimensions of these stadiums are deeper than usual. Also, the ball doesn’t travel especially well in the Southern California air.

There are some ballparks that don’t really favor the offense or defense. In these stadiums, the dimensions are pretty standard. Because of the extreme wind variations at Chicago’s Wrigley Field, this stadium can vary from day to day. If the wind is blowing out, home runs can be easy to come by. In contrast, Wrigley Field is a good pitcher’s yard when the wind is blowing in.

Offensive Quality remains a Critical Factor

In football and basketball, the best personnel available will be in action for each game. Baseball is a little different. The quality of a team can be drastically altered depending on the quality of the starting pitcher that takes the mound on a particular day. Obviously, a dominant starting pitcher can have a great impact on the over/under of a game. However, there are many occasions where the starting pitchers may not lead to a big adjustment in the over/under figures. If average pitchers are going against each other, the total can be influenced more by some other factors. Regardless of the pitching, the bookmaker will take into account the quality of the offense for each team in a game.

Average Number of Runs

The oddsmaker will be aware of the average number of runs scored for each of the lineups in a game. When handicapping a total, the bettor can find some subtle information to potentially gain an edge. Obviously, the starting pitchers should be examined closely. For example, a particular starting pitcher may not have a good history against a certain team or at a specific ballpark. A good left-handed pitcher may have trouble against lineups that are loaded with right-handed batters.

Squad Bullpens

The bullpens for each squad should also be considered. An apparent pitching duel among the starters may ultimately be turned over to some suspect relief hurlers. Even the home plate umpire should be taken into account for each game. Some umps have big strike zones that favor the pitchers while others will have a tight zone that aids the batters. While there is a lot of info to process, the baseball bettor can usually find a good total to wager on each day during the spring and summer.     

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An introduction to Golf betting

Posted on December 3, 2010 by admin

As online sportsbooks have grown and developed over the last decade, betting options have expanded well beyond the main sports, such as football and basketball. Secondary betting sports are now quite common at most online sportsbooks. Golf is one of the minor betting sports that has grown in recent years. While the handicapping process for golf is unique, the sports bettor can find some sound strategies to take advantage of.

As a sport that is played on a global stage, there is usually some type of golfing event to wager on throughout the year. In the United States, the PGA Tour begins in early January and runs into the month of November. There are also other professional tours throughout the world that feature dozens of tournaments each year.

Introduction to Golf Tournaments

The PGA Tour features a combination of minor and major tournaments. Golf’s most acclaimed tournaments are the four major or Grand Slam events. The first leg of the Grand Slam is the Masters at Augusta, Georgia in early April. The next major occurs in the middle of June. The United States Open rotates among a group of the most challenging courses in America. In July, there is the British Open. This event is rotated among a group of about six traditional links style courses in Europe. The Grand Slam swing concludes in August with the PGA Championship.

Like the US Open, the PGA is rotated among a group of the toughest layouts in America. While regular PGA Tour events will consist of players mainly from the United States, the four majors will have a field of the top players throughout the world. For example, the top players from the European Tour are considered to be on par with the top American golfers.

Major Golf Tournaments

While the secondary tournaments are important for a golfer to win, the majors are golf’s version of the Super Bowl. Any golfer that is able to win a major in his career will be noted in the history of the game. Before the Masters, golfers will use the tournaments in the early part of the year to get ready for Augusta. This process is repeated in between the other majors throughout the rest of the year.

In addition to the weekly tournaments, there is a new concept that was recently added to the PGA Tour to reward good play over the course of the season. The Fedex Cup is a competition that takes into account how a player performs over the course of the year. At the end of the PGA Championship, the top 125 players in the Fedex Cup standings get to advance to the first of four Fedx Cup tournaments. By the final Fedex Cup tourney, only the top 30 players are left.

Addition Tournaments of Interest

While the majors are the focus of the golf world each year, there is a unique golfing event that draws plenty of interest every two years. The Ryder Cup is a team competition featuring a matchup between the United States and Europe. Unlike the stroke play events that golfers compete in most of the time, the Ryder Cup features match play scoring. The Ryder Cup is viewed as golf’s most intense event because the players are competing for a nation instead of just themselves. So, there are some significant events and tournaments for a bettor to wager on.

Wagering Options

For a typical golf tournament, there are two main wagering options for the bettor to work from. The main option is one that focuses on the winner of the tournament. Usually, the bookmaker will include a list of about 40 top golfers to place in a tournament betting pool. Any golfer that isn’t listed would be part of the field in the odds rundown. Because there are over 100 golfers in most PGA events, most players would be in the field. The favorite will usually have odds of about 10/1. While it may seem difficult to pick one winning golfer out of over 100 choices, the odds are high enough for the bettor to choose a few different golfers and still turn a profit.

A more basic option for the bettor involves a matchup wager. For a tournament, the bookmaker will have a few head-to-head matchups between a pair of golfers. In this kind of bet, the winner will be the golfer with the lowest total score over the course of a tournament. The golf bettor can also wager on which nation will win the Ryder Cup. When looking beyond the standard football and basketball point spread wagers, the bettor may want to give golf a try.

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Introduction to Wagering on College Football Bowl Games

Posted on December 3, 2010 by admin

Once the college football regular season ends, bettors must then prepare for over 30 bowl games. While there may not appear to be a significant difference between the regular season and postseason in the college ranks, the bettor has to look at some unique factors when handicapping a bowl contest.

Home Team Advantage

In the regular season, there are some basic concepts that a bettor can focus on to wager on a college game. The site of a game is very important and the home field advantage can be quite valuable to a team. Many squads will play significantly better at home than on the road. The passionate fans that fill huge stadiums are eager to see their team win each Saturday. At many schools, the football program is viewed as the focal point of the university in many regards. Generally, the bookmaker will add three points to the home team when setting a line.

Rival Games

There are other factors to consider in the regular season. Most teams will play 12 regular season games over a 13-week period. So, there isn’t a lot of time to prepare for each game. Over these 12 games, certain contests will stand out. Each school has several big rivals to face over the course of a season. Players will get up for these games a little bit more than a typical contest. In turn, teams may be a little flat before or after a big rivalry game. While professional teams won’t get too up or down during the season, college squads tend to be more inconsistent.

Revenge Games

Revenge games can also be a factor in college football handicapping. Because certain teams play each other every season, the squad that lost in the prior year may be a little more motivated in the next meeting.

Gearing up for Bowl Season

When bowl season rolls around, a lot of concepts from the regular season aren’t as relevant. The bowl schedule consists mainly of minor games. These contests lead up to the five major bowls that are a part of the Bowl Championship Series. The Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta are the four major college football bowl games. In addition, there is the BCS title game. The championship matchup site is rotated among the four major bowl venues.

When the bowl pairings are first announced, the bookmaker will look at a couple of main concepts to set a line. There are some general power ratings that are used for each of the college teams. The oddsmaker will also look at the scoring averages on each side of the ball for the squads that are set to compete against each other. Because the bowl games are almost always non-conference matchups, the bookmaker must take into account the level of competition that each team faced during the regular season.

The site of a bowl game usually won’t play a big role in the line. Because most bowl games are at neutral sites, there is no real home field advantage to factor in. During the season, teams are getting cheered or booed at depending on the venue. In a bowl game, the crowd is split about even. Also, many bowl games are played at NFL stadiums. The atmosphere in an NFL stadium is a little different from a stadium on a college campus.

Motivation – A Factor Worthy of Consideration

When handicapping a bowl game, it is important to understand how motivated each team is to play in the matchup. For a minor bowl game, a school without much of a football tradition may be getting a rare chance to play in the postseason. These teams can be extremely motivated to play in the game. In contrast, a college power that is used to playing or competing for a BCS bowl could be disappointed to play in a secondary bowl.

Consider the Bowl Schedule

The overall bowl schedule is another factor that is different from the regular season. Many of the bowl games are three to four weeks after the end of a team’s regular season. The extra preparation time can end up favoring a team in the end. Certain coaches will be able to take advantage of the extra time for a bowl game. The bettor should be aware of how particular teams and/or coaches have fared in bowl games. In many ways, it can be easier to handicap bowl games than regular season contests. The bettor doesn’t have to worry about trap games or any home/road inconsistencies. It is not very difficult to find a few motivated teams during the bowl season to get behind and beat the spread.              

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